Bollinger Bands Strategy on Bitcoin: Backtest Looks Great, How Does Live Trading Perform?
The Bollinger Bands strategy shines in backtests but fails in live trading. Research shows it achieves 58%-65% win rate in ranging markets but only 33% in bull trends with -28% max drawdown. The problem lies in BB’s mean reversion assumption, but BTC trends can last for months. Adding ADX and bandwidth percentile for market state detection significantly improves strategy performance.